IF articles

Freight traffic demand forecasting input output models

Summary - This paper examines the practical usability of Input/Output models for analysis and forecast assessments of the freight traffic demand aimed at transport planning in a regional/interregional context. After a brief reference to the evolution over time of the approaches to the forecast criteria for freight traffic, the models that resort to the so-called spatial (or regional) accounting are presented. They allow taking into account the existence of a spatial distribution of supply and demand for the transport of goods and the relations between the latter and the economic and territorial system. In this way the intersectorial models or Input/Output (IO) models, object of constant scientific attention in recent years are investigated. Within the perspective of IO models, after dealing with the concepts and basic relationships for single-region versions (Single Region IO - SRIO), multiregional models with fixed (Inter-Regional IO - IRIO and Multi -Regional IO - MRIO) and elastic coefficients are referred to (Random Utility-Based MRIO - RUBMRIO). The main features and extensions of these models are highlighted, with the aim of analysing and evaluating the possibility of a concrete and effective use thereof at regional/interregional level, in the planning of transport systems and infrastructures.

  • Marzo
Num. 3
Pag. 181