IF articles

An example of instability in processes of transport innovations: rise and fall of the Diesel car in Europe

Summary - In a market, where two typologies of cars are competing with each other, it happens sometimes that one of them, which is innovative and growing, at a certain point undergoes a decline, which ends with a turn towards a return of growth or towards an increase in decline. Using a dynamic model this paper has shown that the turn is due to an instability typical of innovation processes, and its direction depends on the value of a parameter that measures the resistance of users to giving up the typology of car in the decline phase. Applying this model to the evolution of the market of the Diesel car between 1990 and 2020, it has been shown that the fall in sales of cars after 2015 is due to the little resistance of users to giving up the car during the decline started around 2010.

  • Novembre
Num. 11
Pag. 871