IF articles

Dynamic aggregate models for forecasting of freight demand and road/railway modal split at the Brenner

Summary - The article proposes an approach for estimating the evolution of the Brenner freight traffic demand based on econometric models and techniques for the analysis of historical series. Econometric models are defined with dynamic components that allow considering transport capacity constraints for total tonnages and the dynamics underlying the transfer of shares between road and rail modes using historical data. The models are used to obtain future estimates of freight traffic demand with reference to two different scenarios that consider an identical evolution of the macroeconomic context associated, respectively, to an unchanged infrastructure hypothesis with respect to current events, or to an infrastructure evolution hypothesis linked to the construction and completion of the new Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT). The results obtained in the two scenarios are finally discussed and mutually compared.

  • Agosto
2019
Num. 8
Pag. 555